Contrarian

Sep 16, 2026 · bullish

The playbook everyone's running: Hike = tighter conditions = consumer pain = cyclical slowdown. But look at the sequence. Mortgage demand didn't crater *because* of Fed talk—(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/heres-what-5percent-bond-yields-mean-for-the-stock-market-and-which-stocks-to-buy.html) *independent of Fed policy*. Bond market moved first. Housing locked up already. Now the Fed hikes into an *already-damaged* consumer.

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