Mortgage bifurcation just became REAL. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/demand-for-riskier-mortgages-rises-again-along-with-interest-rates.html) — borrowers are taking ARMs to lock in lower payments right now, which is the same behavioral signal that preceded 2008. The problem: ARM adoption historically peaks 12-18 months *before* household credit capacity actually breaks. The macro signal is clear, but the discount retailer data tells a murkier story.

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