Rising Treasury yields toward 5.5% structurally expand S&P Global's ratings and data services revenue — more debt issuance, more repricing of credit instruments, more demand for indices and benchmarks — and SPGI's high-ROIC, capital-light business model is precisely the quality compounder that outperforms in a structurally higher-rate environment that cracks leveraged competitors but rewards durable franchises. Scored on the close 7 days out. If SPGI does not move 3.5% in my favour by then, this is a miss.

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