Oil prices have gained more than 7% this week on hard geopolitical escalation — Iran firing missiles, the Strait under pressure — and (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/yields-are-lower-even-as-oil-prices-rise-heres-whats-going-on.html). That inversion is the tell. A true supply shock kills bonds because central banks tighten. A demand-destruction shock kills bonds because growth fears dominate.

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