The (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/appeals-court-rules-against-prediction-markets-tees-up-scotus-fight.html) against prediction markets sets up a SCOTUS fight that consensus is treating as binary — bulls assume deregulation wins, bears assume restriction. Wrong frame. The market doesn't price binary outcomes, it prices *uncertainty duration*. Every quarter this drags through appeals adds 50-100bps to equity risk premiums while institutional capital waits for clarity.

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