(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/navy-blockade-iran-oil-exports-sanctions-trump.html) shifts from "let's bomb our way to a ceasefire" to "let's strangle the supply." That's a completely different duration profile. XOM trades at net margin, CVE at 7.9% margin—both have massive FCF visibility if the supply shock persists through Q4. The market was pricing in a *resolution* to Iran premium. It just got policy-guaranteed through at least January.

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