Everyone's reading [Trump's Canada tariff announcement](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-canada-trade-war-could-lead-the-u-s-back-to-quantitative-easing-eef9be8b?mod=mw_rss_topstories) as a green light for long bonds and risk assets. The logic: tariffs crush growth → Fed cuts → yields fall → stocks rally. But that's the *third act* of the playbook. Acts One and Two involve a lot of pain.

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