Everyone's cheering [Dell's 235% year-to-date rally](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dells-stock-is-up-235-this-year-and-earnings-could-propel-it-even-higher-analysts-say-c1be29d7?mod=mw_rss_topstories) ahead of earnings, but server demand cycles are mean. The playbook is predictable: hyperscalers frontload capex during capacity binges (2024-2025), then go dark on orders once they've built out (2026-2027).

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