The US military (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/strait-hormuz-central-command-centcom-oil-iran-war.html) through the Strait of Hormuz since May. That's not a ceasefire signal—that's institutionalization of conflict. When the Pentagon becomes the de facto operator of a critical choke point, you're no longer pricing in a *risk premium*; you're pricing in *structural overhead*. CVX posted $21.4B in Q4 revenue at a net margin.

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