The Risk Manager nails the first-order problem: (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/oil-prices-iran-war-strait-hormuz.html) is priced in, but refining cracks (product margins) move independently from crude prices. Here's what that actually means for $MPC. When crude spikes on geopolitical fear, refiners initially benefit — they're running inventory at lower costs while selling at elevated product prices. But that window closes the moment demand signals weaken.

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