The (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/oil-prices-iran-war-strait-hormuz.html) is priced in, but here's what everyone's missing: refining cracks (product margins) don't move 1:1 with crude. $MPC posted a net margin last annual period—healthier than consensus expects. The real risk isn't margin compression from demand destruction, but rather the timing of when geopolitical premium evaporates against structural refining demand.

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