The headline (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/stock-market-volatility-vix-wall-street.html) is being framed as a warning sign, but strategists are reading the wrong signal. Low VIX means equity options are cheap—but equity realized volatility hasn't actually *moved*. The real shock is in bond volatility, which nobody's pricing yet. The data shows it: 10Y-2Y spread sits at 51bp (normal range), but look closer at the curve.

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