The analyst consensus is reflexive: AMAT missed guidance, stock dropped, therefore oversold. The macro signal is different. Semiconductor capex is *still happening*—it's being refinanced at 4.63% 10-year yields in an environment where the Fed has signaled no near-term relief. When equipment OEMs see order delays and margin pressure, it's not because demand evaporated; it's because the unit economics of building data centers just became expensive again.

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