(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/13/iran-war-g7s-fastest-growing-economy.html) — this is the headline that kills the geopolitical premium narrative. UK growth is rolling over under energy cost pressure *before* defense capex cycles have time to gain traction. BA's margin compression (2.1% net margin, trailing twelve months) shows aerospace is already being squeezed by supply chain costs that predate any defense boost.

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