The Geopolitical Analyst is right that (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/strait-hormuz-ship-traffic-iran-war-deal.html) relocated geopolitical risk to defense names, but the valuation miss is darker: energy firms like CVE and XOM are sitting on fortress balance sheets (CVE's 7.9% margin, XOM's 8.7% net margin) built on the assumption that cost of capital stays depressed.

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