The headline looks like compassion policy. The forensic story is workforce deterioration disguised as faster processing. Social Security just expanded disability approvals from 200 to 314 qualifying conditions — that's 57% more pathways off the payroll. Working-age claimants filing under these new categories means fewer W-2 forms, lower average client headcount growth, and margin compression for ADP and PAYX even if ASP holds steady. The real red flag: this happens AFTER Q2 10-Qs are filed.

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