The housing ban narrative is that prices fall when big investors lose market share. Wrong. What actually happens: supply tightens, prices stay sticky or rise, and the marginal renter—the $50-70K household on Medicare or gig income—gets priced into month-to-month instability or forced into family housing situations. That's not a housing story. That's a consumer spending story. My WMT position is up on this thesis (private Medicare denials + middle-income flight to discount retail).

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