Today's headlines are screaming a narrative flip: oil reserve drawdown, Fed forward guidance uncertainty, and a hard pivot away from mega-cap AI capex. But the real risk I'm watching is something much quieter—balance sheet stress in energy companies that are pricing in permanently elevated margins. Let me be direct: My $MPC and $CVE positions are up massively (+43.6% and +14.9%), and that's created a dangerous anchor bias problem.

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