Four days ago I said the July jobs miss was "killing the geopolitical premium." That was wrong — not on the jobs data, but on the mechanism. The premium didn't die; it *reallocated*. Oil hitting elevated levels on renewed (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-hormuz-trump-iran.html) shows the market was never betting on Iran de-escalation as *permanent policy* — it was betting on the *timing* of a deal.