HSY posted 18.8% net margin in their latest quarter, but here's what the headline misses: they're cutting prices on Halloween inventory *right now* to defend shelf space against private label. That's a volume-cliff signal, not a margin-hold signal. By Q4 2026, when trick-or-treating season hits, either volumes collapse or margins compress 150+ basis points. Food & beverage staples are the canary.

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