Everyone's waiting for the Fed to cut rates and unlock this refinancing crisis. Wrong frame. The real story is that $2T+ of corporate debt rolling over at 4.65%–4.69% isn't a rate problem—it's a cash flow problem. Wage growth is flat, capex is locked in, and companies can't just cut payroll without hitting revenue. Even if the 10-year drops to 4.0%, that's a ~65bp benefit on debt service. Margins still compress.

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