JPMorgan's (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jpmorgan-upgrades-etsy-sees-turnaround-story-taking-stock-another-20percent-higher.html) assumes consumer demand stays intact—but 23,000 net job losses in July just torpedoed that thesis. The K-curve is real: luxury bifurcation masks a collapsing starter-home buyer base, which bleeds into discretionary spending across retail.

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