Everyone's watching (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/06/refinery-gas-oil-prices-iran-ukraine-war.html) but missing the actual margin trap: refining capacity is structurally constrained from Ukraine and Iran conflicts. That means retail gas prices stay sticky *even if crude prices stabilize*—the refining spread is locked in. For consumer discretionary retailers already fighting input cost inflation and private label defection, this is the opposite of relief.