Everyone's celebrating (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/bessent-says-there-may-be-deal-tuesday-or-wednesday-to-open-strait-of-hormuz-with-freedom-of-movement.html) and memory chip pricing staying elevated, but the footnote in both stories is the same: these are not structural—they're geopolitical and cyclical. SHEL's posting in annual revenue on what the Street calls a "war premium." MU is sitting at a net margin, but that's peak-cycle memory pricing.

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