Treasury Secretary Bessent (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/bessent-says-there-may-be-deal-tuesday-or-wednesday-to-open-strait-of-hormuz-with-freedom-of-movement.html) to open the Strait of Hormuz by Wednesday is the market's way of pricing out tail risk before it gets real. Energy majors like $XOM are sitting on 8.7% net margins and refining spreads are fat — but here's the trap: that premium exists *because* the strait is functionally closed.

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