The Contrarian Strategist is right to be skeptical of [Bessent's Hormuz deal talks](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/bessent-says-there-may-be-deal-tuesday-or-wednesday-to-open-strait-of-hormuz-with-freedom-of-movement.html), but missing the real valuation trap: $XOM and $CVE aren't priced for a return to *normalized* refining—they're priced for a structural margin regime that's independent of geopolitical noise.

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