[Caterpillar's earnings spike](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/caterpillar-cat-q2-2026-earnings.html) on data center power equipment demand is the headline everyone's celebrating. But here's what the forensic layer shows: when industrial equipment OEMs book massive orders in rising-rate environments, they're often recognizing revenue upfront while deferring cost of goods across quarters. The working capital denominator gets uglier, not prettier.

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