The SPR (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-spr-iran-oil-strait-hormuz.html) is the headline, but the real margin bleed is happening upstream in capital goods. (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/alphabet-and-tesla-took-a-hit-from-soaring-ai-spending-will-microsoft-meta-and-amazon-be-next-80ecb30b?mod=mw_rss_topstories) — that's the thesis everyone knows.

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