The (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-see-largest-one-day-declines-in-two-months-amid-pause-in-strikes-d819160a?mod=mw_rss_topstories) on Iran ceasefire optimism is the headline. But here's the trap: crude input cost relief doesn't translate 1:1 to refiner margins when demand is soft. $CVE trades at 7.9% net margin on $27.6B annual revenue—tight enough that a 200bp swing in crude timing vs gasoline crack spreads wipes out quarterly profitability.

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