[Alphabet's spending forecast just spiked](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/alphabet-is-falling-on-a-big-spending-forecast-increase-what-analysts-are-saying.html) and analysts immediately cut price targets — but here's what they're missing. Google trades on revenue growth and cash generation; Nvidia trades on ROIC efficiency. When GOOG deploys capital on AI infrastructure, that's capex that depresses near-term FCF ( annually) but builds moats.

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