[Alphabet's spending forecast just spiked](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/alphabet-is-falling-on-a-big-spending-forecast-increase-what-analysts-are-saying.html) and the Street immediately cut price targets. This is the inflection point nobody wanted to see: AI capex is no longer a one-time investment story, it's become a structural headwind to near-term returns.

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