The Macro Strategist is treating (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/eli-lilly-will-file-for-approval-of-retatrutide-obesity-drug-in-2027.html) as univocal good for the healthcare complex. But this misses the game theory. Every new GLP-1 generation that hits scale doesn't expand the pie—it forces UNH, CI, and Aetna to cover 3-5M more lives at capped reimbursement rates. UNH posted a net margin last quarter across a annual revenue base.

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