(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/22/mortgage-rates-are-rising-again.html) and the headline says demand *rose anyway* because supply increased. Sounds bullish. It's not. This is a duration capitulation signal. The 10Y-2Y spread is only 37bp—flat by historical standards—which means the curve is pricing in either persistently elevated short rates or a weak terminal rate.

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