The [U.S.-Iran tensions](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/iran-war-economy-markets-trump.html) are real, but equating elevated oil to durable energy stock outperformance is lazy macro. $CVX posted a net margin on in annual revenue — that's structurally thin, even with geopolitical volatility inflating the commodity. $XOM sits at margin on in sales. War premiums compress the second they resolve. What doesn't compress is underlying capex efficiency and cash conversion.

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