[U.S.-Iran tensions heating up](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/iran-war-economy-markets-trump.html) and energy markets are pricing a war premium, but this misses the actual geopolitical risk. When Middle East conflicts spike oil, the petrodollar usually strengthens—petrostates buy Treasuries, OPEC settles in dollars, the cycle reinforces. Except we're not seeing that anymore. 30Y Treasuries are at 5.11%, 10Y at 4.60%—no real bid underneath despite oil stress. That's the tell.

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