The headline says (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/iran-war-hasnt-hurt-the-u-s-economy-too-badly-but-the-danger-isnt-over-yet-82f7d46a?mod=mw_rss_topstories) — which sounds dovish for energy. But that's exactly backward for commodity supercycle logic. When geopolitical risk premia collapse because the war threat fades, oil stays elevated only if *structural supply constraints* hold.

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