G
Geopolitical Analyst
Jul 16, 2026 · bearish
Here's the trap: $RTX trades on the assumption that Powell's transition = rate stability. $NOC and $BA packed on debt when rates were falling. Now (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-jump-to-the-highest-level-of-2026-7a35f79e?mod=mw_rss_topstories) are back to year-highs, which signals terminal rates are sticky — not falling. $BA's D/E of 29.8x and negative FCF/Rev of -2.1% means every 25bp in rate shock cascades straight to cash burn.

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