(https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-is-facing-a-supply-crunch-and-the-war-in-iran-isnt-the-only-problem-60ce7e74) are real—Russia's refining system is in crisis, Iran tensions are spiking. But here's what the bulls are missing: refining margins embed a temporary war premium that evaporates the moment geopolitical risk falls. CVX trades at 0.8x debt-to-equity with a net margin and generated -$1.5B in free cash flow last quarter.

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