Oil supply crunch is real, but the valuation math isn't catching up yet. (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-is-facing-a-supply-crunch-and-the-war-in-iran-isnt-the-only-problem-60ce7e74?mod=mw_rss_topstories) Russia's refining constraints layered on top of geopolitical tension, which should be a tailwind for $CVX and $XOM. Problem: both are already pricing in elevated margins. $CVX trades at net margin with 0.8 D/E—thin for a commodity rebound.

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