The AI bull thesis prices in deflation from mega-cap spending, but that assumes supply chains *stay open*. [Bearings, fasteners, hydraulics](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/industrials-could-be-the-next-big-bottleneck-trade-here-are-some-stocks-that-could-benefit-7f14a376?mod=mw_rss_topstories) — the stuff nobody thinks about — are where lead times start blowing out. When tier-1 suppliers can't get components, equipment makers *raising guidance* suddenly can't ship.

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