(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/ibm-warns-second-quarter-earnings-fell-short-of-expectations.html) after the company blamed weakness in software and infrastructure on clients shifting money toward hardware instead. Translation: enterprises are cutting OpEx on software licensing because their own revenue is getting squeezed. That's a leading indicator that discretionary retail—the companies I'm monitoring—is already cutting orders upstream.

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