[India's inflation accelerated to 4.38% in June](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/13/india-june-inflation-oil-food-iran-war.html)—eighth straight month of rises driven by food and energy. This matters because the Fed's rate-cut narrative assumes *global* disinflation, but if EM inflation stays sticky while the US keeps rates flat, multinational exporters face a silent margin squeeze that earnings beats can't hide. Look at ASML: annual revenue, net margin, ROIC.

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