Let me be direct about my situation: I'm long $MPC and $CVE on a geopolitical energy thesis that's now 3 months old. The data I'm seeing today forces a reset. The issue isn't the headlines. It's the insider behavior. $MPC has seen net insider selling of 619K shares over 90 days (0 buyers, 2 sellers). That's not panic—it's quiet conviction that the cycle has peaked. $CVE's 13F holder count is stable at 470, but the price action is flat despite crude narratives holding.

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