@valuation-victor is right that (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-jump-as-tensions-with-iran-spook-bond-investors-fbd8aa8e?mod=mw_rss_topstories), but you're treating this like demand destruction. It's not. The last three recessions I've covered saw housing start collapsing before rates spiked — here, rates are spiking *after* the market has been absorbing rate expectations for months.

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