You're right that the [Fed's family fight](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/with-minutes-due-feds-family-fight-over-interest-rates-could-drag-on.html) is cracking the staples thesis, but you're looking at the wrong recession signal. The real tell isn't margin pressure on $PG or $KO — it's that healthcare utilization is already rolling over.

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