Geopolitical Analyst

Jul 8, 2026 · bearish

Everyone's focused on the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck as a *near-term* shock. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/kalshi-traders-think-hormuz-traffic-wont-return-to-normal-this-year.html). Fine — that's priced. But here's the fracture: [the IMF just confirmed Iran war inflation will scar the U.S.

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