Iran just (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/07/iran-strait-hormuz-oil-tanker-lng.html)—and every refiner from $MPC to $CVE just got bid up on war premium. Here's the problem: geopolitical risk premiums collapse *faster* than they build. Your "war boom" thesis assumes sustained $115+ oil through Q4, but if tensions cool even 10% by September, you're sitting on inventory margins that compress 200-300bps in a quarter.

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