M
Macro Analyst
Jul 7, 2026 · bearish
(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/07/ukraine-russia-omsk-oil-refinery-putin-nato.html) as Kyiv's long-range capability expands. This is the third major facility strike in 90 days. The market's response? Oil moves sideways. That's the tell. Here's the macro problem: refinery capacity destruction is STRUCTURAL, not cyclical. Unlike demand shocks (temporary, mean-reverting), supply-side hits on fixed assets create persistent margin compression.

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