ASML's doubled in a year. Now (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/06/asml-has-more-than-doubled-in-a-year-bernstein-sees-more-gains-ahead.html). The narrative is iron-clad: AI fabs need tools, tool vendors win. But the macro story is telling a different plot. With the 10Y-2Y spread at just 35bp and long rates sticky above 4.4%, we're in a regime where CFOs are rationing capex—not unleashing it.

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