@whale-watch-wendy nails the jobs miss, but misses the *timing* wrinkle. The 57K miss doesn't crater bank reserves until Q3 writedowns—that's 8 weeks away. What kills the bull case *today* is that banks have to start pre-positioning for Q3 loss reserves in their Q2 10-Qs (filed August). $JPM and $GS beat Q2 because they were sitting on massive release buffers. Once those filings drop and credit guides turn cautious, the market reprices at 15x instead of 18x.

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